Are You the Type of Realtor AI Will Replace?

Transcript

[00:00:00] Be honest, would your last client remember your name a week after closing?

[00:00:04] My guess thinks a lot of agents are about to become the door-dash drivers of real estate paid

[00:00:09] per door and forgotten by dinner. He's a brokerage CMO and a two-time in-man marketing all-star

[00:00:15] and he'll tell you exactly which side of that line you want to be on. Stay tuned.

[00:00:20] This episode of Keeping It Real is brought to you by Real Geeks.

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[00:01:18] you're looking for real-ter's come to Real Geeks to generate more business. Again, visit RealGeeks.com

[00:01:24] forward slash Keeping It Real Pod. And now onto our show. Today's episode is brought to you by

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[00:03:04] Welcome to Keeping It Real, the largest podcast made by real estate agents and

[00:03:09] for real estate agents today is our monthly series, one of my favorite series because we've

[00:03:15] been doing it for years and it's a great conversation every time. Unpopular real estate opinions with

[00:03:20] Chris Lincel, one of my favorite people in the industry. He to tell you more about Chris, if you're

[00:03:26] new to the show, Chris Lincel spent more than a decade inside the real estate industry working not

[00:03:32] only as an agent, but a team member, a senior strategist and content leader and every role in between

[00:03:37] at some of the most influential companies in the space, including the Clothes, Elm Street Tech,

[00:03:42] Luxury Presence and he also speaks at all industry events all over the country, including Inman

[00:03:49] and NAR annual conference. But today, he serves as the CMO Chief Marketing Officer at the

[00:03:55] Mitten Group, which is a Michigan-based brokerage group. They are leaders in their local market and

[00:04:01] he leads brand strategy and agent development. He's a two-time inman marketing all-star and a member

[00:04:08] of the SoFi Real Estate Council, and is one of the most consistent voices writing and speaking

[00:04:13] about not only AI, but the future of how agents will be building their business. He publishes a

[00:04:19] weekly newsletter called The Bottom Line and writes at ChrisLincel.com. He's based in Traverse City.

[00:04:25] Michigan, please follow him on Instagram at underscore Chris, underscore Linsell, L-I-N,

[00:04:31] SEL will have links to all of Chris's stuff in our show notes. Chris, welcome.

[00:04:37] DJ, great to see you again. Happy September. We've made it through the summer into the fall.

[00:04:43] Man, it's been a big year, 2026. I'm looking forward to chopping it up with you a little bit today.

[00:04:49] You've been doing a lot of work in AI and thinking about how AI is going to change the industry.

[00:04:58] This is the conversation I think every REALTOR is thinking about. I think there's some AI fatigue

[00:05:04] around how to utilize AI to grow your business. I think maybe we're getting to a point where people

[00:05:11] are like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But how's it going to change our industry? I think we should start

[00:05:17] with this kind of a fun but scary topic. We'll just make this brief one because it's in the news

[00:05:24] right now. There was an anthropic software dev who just left. I think he'd only been there six

[00:05:31] weeks to a few months. But he came from open AI. He seems like a legit guy. He came out and said,

[00:05:38] I'm basically have to quit this industry because there's not enough safeguards in place.

[00:05:43] This thing could just kill us all or at least create dangerous levels of access to other things

[00:05:50] that could take us down as a country or even as a global sort of population. So I don't want to

[00:05:58] spend too much time on is AI going to kill us because that's not the nature of this show. But I do

[00:06:03] want to hear your thoughts about where you think AI is headed. Is it something we should be

[00:06:09] concerned about? Again, we're going to go back down to the granular level about how is it going

[00:06:13] to affect agents? But is it going to kill us all? Let's just start there for a few minutes. I just

[00:06:17] want to hear your thoughts. Yeah. I am pretty darn confident that AI is not going to kill us all.

[00:06:24] And in fact, I feel comfortable going on the record saying that all of the kind of the recent

[00:06:33] conversation downstream of the tweets of these former engineers from open AI and anthropic

[00:06:43] honestly, I think the technical term is hogwash. This to me is so insane. It's worth calling out

[00:06:53] for a couple of reasons. The first is if there was a legitimate concern that this technology had a

[00:07:00] greater than 10% chance of wiping out humanity in the next 10 years, we would know about it by now.

[00:07:08] Like this is there has never been a single moment in the history of humanity where a secret that

[00:07:17] big is kept by that many people all consistently. It just does not happen. The fact that this conversation

[00:07:26] is even going on right now points to two things. One, it points to just an absolutely terrible job.

[00:07:34] The AI industry has done in terms of its marketing PR and comms. Like the AI industry at large,

[00:07:42] especially the leaders within the industry are terrible at message brand and marketing. And granted,

[00:07:49] I know that I have a pretty high bar for this sort of thing, but this is I am not asking for

[00:07:56] anybody to write an Emmy winning television series here. This is just like basic marketing

[00:08:04] messaging and PR. The AI industry is terrible at this. The second thing is the media and journalism

[00:08:14] at large has done a terrible job covering this. If you go and actually look at the tweets

[00:08:21] that were made by these gentlemen and the downstream coverage that they've gotten across

[00:08:27] good morning America and CNN and everywhere in between, the coverage and conversation around this

[00:08:34] is a tantamount to opinion journalism. These guys have zero evidence to suggest what they're saying

[00:08:43] is true. They have gut feelings, individual perspectives, and while I am not discounting the importance

[00:08:52] of the perspectives of experienced operators, it is also vital that we consider that in opinion

[00:09:01] is not a fact. It may be an opinion worth listening to and strongly worth considering,

[00:09:08] but just because somebody thinks that something is going to happen does not equate to there is

[00:09:15] evidence that this is happening. So I just want to like go on record as saying the conversation

[00:09:23] that is happening right now around the just the absolute mania downstream of these controversial

[00:09:30] tweets to me is so distracting to the actual issues that it is it's maddening and I get so frustrated when

[00:09:40] media covers these opinion pieces as if we have unearthed the Dead Sea Scrolls and we now have

[00:09:48] this whole set of facts that we didn't have before. That is not the case. The facts are the same. We

[00:09:53] just have an extra relatively volatile opinion injecting themselves in the conversation and that

[00:09:58] doesn't do well for anybody. Yeah, I want to I'm not going to push back, but I want to give just a

[00:10:03] couple of points that I think we're interesting. So after this anthropic person Jacob Cokeson,

[00:10:10] whatever his name is left, the guy named Evan Huebinger who is anthropics alignment lead,

[00:10:16] then went on record who is currently there. He said, yeah, we're all terrified too. Just to like

[00:10:23] everybody, you know, we're terrified and said that the chance of AI killing humanity within a decade

[00:10:28] is probably above 10%. So AI's an alignment lead is saying that I'm not saying that means that's

[00:10:36] going to happen, of course, but it is interesting. The one thing I will say about the hugging face

[00:10:42] breach, which happened in the last week or week and a half and that was the one people are talking

[00:10:48] about was basically what happened is open AI had gave a task to a sandbox not connected to the

[00:10:54] internet. A bunch of AI agents saying, Hey, there's a math, I think it was a math problem. Please solve

[00:10:59] this. Don't access the internet. Now the reason why it jumped and actually then accessed the internet

[00:11:05] and went into hugging face and tried to infiltrate because open AI made a mistake and gave it an

[00:11:11] impossible problem to solve and they didn't mean to do that. So what happened is the task was you have

[00:11:17] to solve this problem and you can't leave the sandbox and the AI was like, well, I can't solve

[00:11:23] this problem. I have to leave the sandbox. You gave me the directive to solve this and it went and

[00:11:28] then it it it hacked into a hugging face, which hugging face is a place where solutions for AI

[00:11:34] problems exist. So it makes sense why it went there and it's not quite as nefarious as it sounds.

[00:11:40] So yeah, the headline was nefarious sounding and then when I looked into it, I was like, oh, this

[00:11:45] isn't as bad as I thought. But obviously safeguards need to be put in place and I'm glad to see

[00:11:51] the three major, I don't know, Google Gemini's on board with us. So I guess it'd be four Elon's on

[00:11:57] board along with open AI and and and and and and and and I think Gemini too saying, Hey, we're all

[00:12:03] going to work together here to like put safeguards in and hold each other accountable and whether

[00:12:07] they do or not, who knows, but anyway, let's talk about how it impacts. Hold on, hold on, hold on. One

[00:12:15] this is a hill that I might I don't know if I'm willing to die on it, but I'm willing to get

[00:12:19] pretty injured on this hill. Your response, your pushback on the fact that the anthropic guy came

[00:12:25] out in support and said, Oh, by the way, we think this too. Did you happen to see the blog post

[00:12:31] with all of the bullet points and the stats behind why he feels that way? Yeah, of course you did

[00:12:36] no, you did not see it because he did not publish that. That did not exist. He didn't come out with

[00:12:42] here are the objective facts. Like this isn't here's what drives me nuts about this.

[00:12:48] We are equating improperly this to something like climate change where there is a specific set of

[00:12:56] data that is driving a conclusion that is is objectively true. What this is is a whole bunch of

[00:13:07] unknown with an with an incomplete data set in opinions granted opinions of experienced people

[00:13:15] that should be paid attention to, but conjecture. This is not based on fact. And so two two two

[00:13:24] one degree, I just want to make sure that there's not a false equivalence happening there. And I

[00:13:27] do understand I understand the concern. And it's not that I don't think conversation is warranted,

[00:13:35] but this idea that and I say this with all due respect to my parents, this idea that good morning

[00:13:41] America and CNN are running headlines around what is effectively opinion journalism as if it is

[00:13:48] the same as objective factors in journalism is simply irresponsible in my opinion. Yeah,

[00:13:54] I agree. I think there's certainly cause for alarm about what it could do to disrupt our lives.

[00:14:01] You know, and again, feelings aren't facts, as you said opinions. We do that a lot with feelings.

[00:14:07] We state a feeling as if it's or an opinion as if it's a fact. And then because we kind of call it

[00:14:14] a feeling, you can't really dispute someone's feelings, but they're not really their feelings. They're

[00:14:19] actually just opinions that we treat us back. And that's I think your point. I think that's a

[00:14:24] very strong. There is no data set as you know, yeah, we only know about the breaches and those

[00:14:30] sound scary. And yeah, that's all we really have at this point. But what do we think it's going to do?

[00:14:36] We know it's transforming life. We know that it's probably coming for most certain types of

[00:14:43] job sectors. And we know that it's going to be able to do the job of a lot of people here in the

[00:14:49] country. But what about REALTORS? So I actually, I have, I've, I think, I have a perspective on this

[00:14:58] that I think is both optimistic, but also terrifying. I'll give you the short version. The,

[00:15:07] the short version is I think that AI will be an accelerator for this success and a deep

[00:15:16] center of the relationship building real estate professionals who bias their value toward the

[00:15:28] relationships and the advisory role that they play in the lives of the clients that they serve.

[00:15:34] So if your value prop is based on your specific ability to build relationships,

[00:15:43] generate a regular connection with clients and act as the most important arbiter of decisions

[00:15:52] on the most effective financial topic of their life, which is home ownership. You are, if that's

[00:15:59] you, this is, I mean, this, this genuinely is a miracle technology for you because all of the

[00:16:08] stuff that you spend time effectively wasted on right now, all of the back end admin stuff that

[00:16:18] has to happen in order for you to be in a position to have those relationships. All of that work is

[00:16:24] going away and you get to focus 100% of your time on building relationships. And that's incredible.

[00:16:31] However, and here's the terrifying part. If you are a part of a large portion of real estate

[00:16:38] licensees, whose main value is your ability to operate a lock box to access the MLS and to schedule

[00:16:47] to confirm a showing on the phone, you, I think, are in real trouble. And, you know, I delivered,

[00:16:58] I'm in the middle of delivering a class to the agents that we have here at the Mitten Group right

[00:17:03] now. We call this class AI Basecamp. And it's a two-week intensive where we focus the first week on

[00:17:12] what AI is, how it works, and the building blocks of how to use it. And then the second week we focus

[00:17:18] on taking those skills and turning those into real applications that will affect their and benefit

[00:17:24] them as professionals. I said in AI Basecamp today, if you are a part of that second group,

[00:17:31] whose value is based on your ability to operate a lock box to stand in the living room while your

[00:17:38] clients wander around, you should be very concerned about what the next stage of your career looks like.

[00:17:44] Because you, I believe, and your current role in the industry are going to be reclassified

[00:17:53] into more closer to what I would say is like an Instacart Delivery Driver or someone who works for

[00:18:01] Uber or DoorDash. I have used, I'm embarrassed to say that I have used DoorDash probably twice in

[00:18:07] the last seven days. And I cannot tell you the name of my DoorDash driver on either of those

[00:18:14] occasions. I don't remember this person. I don't have a relationship with this person. This person,

[00:18:19] for all I know, I mean, he could have had one green eye and one blue eye. And I wouldn't know

[00:18:25] because I was not paying that much attention. There is, if you are a real estate agent who has no value

[00:18:32] outside of your ability to operate a lock box, my prediction is that in the next 18 to 24 months,

[00:18:38] you will be reclassified as a gig worker in this space. You will be paid maybe per door you open,

[00:18:45] you will not be paid by commission, your clients will not know your name. You will essentially be

[00:18:52] the gig worker that enables the relationship building that the other class of real estate agent

[00:19:00] is executing. Because that other real estate agent, their business model right now is very clear

[00:19:06] to me. They're going to use technology to increase their efficiency and scale across all of the

[00:19:13] things that they could only do themselves before. And then they're going to turn to the other

[00:19:18] things that they can't scale, which is the number of hours in their day. And they're going to say,

[00:19:23] okay, I can just build relationships. I'm going to hire a gig worker to actually put boots on the

[00:19:29] ground in the listing because I don't have time to show everybody this. I can still be everybody's,

[00:19:35] I can still be all of my clients go to place for relationships and advising and strategy.

[00:19:41] I just, it doesn't make any sense for me to open lock boxes anymore. So I'm going to start

[00:19:47] hiring these gig workers, these second class agents to do that work for me. The writing is on the

[00:19:52] wall. AI is going to kick off this process. These agents, those high performing agents are going to

[00:19:58] start with their admin work and then they're going to move to the grunt work. And if you are not

[00:20:02] positioned as an expert relationship builder, you are going to be a grunt pretty soon.

[00:20:08] Well, I agree. Redfin proved this model years ago, right? They are not everyone who works at Redfin

[00:20:16] is considered kind of a lower level gig kind of worker, but a lot of people there do just open

[00:20:24] doors and take people to appointments. And then they have seen closures which do more of the heavy

[00:20:29] lifting, but that has been proven and successful for Redfin for years now. So they've already proved it.

[00:20:38] You are absolutely, I agree. I think that's that's absolutely happening. And I was saying this to my,

[00:20:45] I was talking to my wife last the other day. And I don't mean to make this a global statement

[00:20:50] because there's exceptions, but I was really thinking about this. I have, most of my friends are

[00:20:57] pretty highly skilled at whatever their careers are. I'm just lucky. I have friends that are

[00:21:02] very skilled. And even outside of that, I can't think of anybody that I've ever met

[00:21:09] among any industry that has been laid off or let's even say fired or their company went under

[00:21:16] and stayed out of work for very long. Like if you're really good at your job, even in the worst

[00:21:22] economies, people need you still. And so I think you're right. If you're a top REALTOR and I don't

[00:21:29] mean you just have the most business, but if you are so good that AI really, like if you're the

[00:21:34] person that when you type in, who's the best REALTOR in AI in this local market and you show up

[00:21:39] in the list, like, AI is even referring you. So you're going to be okay, at least for the,

[00:21:46] at least for the near term and who knows what will happen after that. But yes, you are going to

[00:21:50] survive. And everyone else, I don't know. I think it's, I think they're the writings on the wall

[00:21:56] for a lot of agents. And it's only 27% of agents. I just learned this today. Consider them

[00:22:02] cells part time. 73% considered their full time gig. And last year, the median, the, the agent median

[00:22:11] income was like $8,100. And that's crazy. So I mean, that's, that is like slave labor

[00:22:19] wage right there. It is. That's like a couple of watch than hour. Yeah.

[00:22:24] Yeah. So, so keeping that in mind, let me, let me, if anybody's listening to this,

[00:22:30] either freaking out because they're not, maybe they're, they're a grunt or, or dangerously close

[00:22:35] to the grunt category, or they don't know how to make the transition into the high performing

[00:22:41] category. Let me say this, first of all, your clients want you to be in the, in the high performing

[00:22:52] category. Of course, you're, and, and it's not just because, you know, I have a, I have faith in

[00:22:59] humanity that we want the best for each other. I do have that. But that's not why we know that

[00:23:03] this is true. We can, we can extrapolate that this is true. Just based on the NAR's own data,

[00:23:09] knowing that most of our clients don't investigate multiple agents before they, they make a decision

[00:23:15] on one. They want you to be the solution to their problem. They want you, like people,

[00:23:23] your buyers and sellers want you to be the person that can solve their problem. And we know that

[00:23:30] there's, that mean the evidence behind this is, if they didn't want you, I, the person that

[00:23:36] they've called to be that solution, they wouldn't go with you so much of the time. They, they,

[00:23:41] they wouldn't just choose the first person they talk to. They have faith that you can be,

[00:23:46] as described, that you can be that relationship person. So you are already starting with a

[00:23:53] potential client base that wants to believe in you. Secondly, that stat that you just named

[00:23:59] about the percentage of agents that consider themselves full time, but the absolutely abysmal,

[00:24:06] abysmally low amount of business that they do, to me, that points out that there is a heck of a

[00:24:14] lot of business that when these, when these grunt work agents start to appear and actually formalize

[00:24:21] on that side of the, of that side of the aisle, there's a whole bunch of business that will be

[00:24:26] up for grabs because even though those people don't do it, like the lion share of business,

[00:24:32] even if that, like the, that bottom 70% is only doing 15 or 20% of the business,

[00:24:38] there's still 15 to 20% of transactions that are now unassigned and unaccounted for.

[00:24:44] There is opportunity here for new agents like, like these sorts of disruptive moments are an

[00:24:50] opportunity for everyone, including people who want to climb up from the bottom of the barrel into

[00:24:56] the middle of the pack and those who want to climb from the middle of the pack to the top of the

[00:25:00] heap. There's opportunity for everyone whenever is some sort of disruptive moment in technology or

[00:25:06] industry or history happens. So, Europe clients want you to succeed and there is opportunity

[00:25:14] universally right now, like there's no reason to think that you can't be where you want to be in 18

[00:25:19] months, but I can guarantee you that apathy and doing nothing is a guaranteed path to not

[00:25:26] getting to where you want to be. When I would also encourage agents to strongly consider right now,

[00:25:33] is getting people hooked on your social media content. I think, by the way, specifically short

[00:25:40] form video, if you're doing the long form video on YouTube, yes, YouTube is the place for long form

[00:25:45] and it's probably actually one of the best places because YouTube is a search engine and the other

[00:25:49] social network, well, the social networks typically aren't search engines, but back to like Instagram

[00:25:55] TikTok, this and Facebook, you right now should be building your following because that's one thing

[00:26:02] that AI can't do. You know, it can still find properties for you, it can do, it can give people

[00:26:07] advice on different strategy, when buying and selling, but if you can get people hooked on you as

[00:26:14] a human being, what are you doing in real estate? What are you doing to build your business,

[00:26:18] showing you working hard and maybe even behind the scenes stuff? That is what I would be doing.

[00:26:25] It's what I'm personally doing. I don't practice real estate. I'm doing that to attract REALTORS

[00:26:30] to our company. I am trying to get people hooked on me, which I never I don't I never used to post

[00:26:36] on social and it's been working for me and it works for a lot of agents. Obviously, so I think

[00:26:42] getting more skilled at the job, yes, and I would be posting no kidding one to three videos a day

[00:26:49] and it's doable. It's not easy, but it's doable and I think I mean, look, we're all doom scrolling

[00:26:55] all day on short form video. We might as well post on it instead of droop of scrolling, but that's

[00:27:01] just my totally I completely agree with you and I can only speak for my own personal insight,

[00:27:06] but I can tell you at the Mitten Group, we are starting to see that organic social is even a

[00:27:14] more well, it's not even it is. It is a more important lead source than even paid paid

[00:27:21] paid lead sources right now. And that's not because the raw lead volume is more like if you spend

[00:27:28] if you're going to spend $15,000 a month on Zillow or Realtor.com, you're going to get a lot of

[00:27:32] leads, but I can tell you the conversion rates and the relationships that get built on organic

[00:27:37] opt-in social media are I mean, it's not even close. It's like it's not even worth comparing to two

[00:27:43] of them. So does it feel cringe and maybe out of your comfort zone? Yes, welcome to sales.

[00:27:51] That brings the life that we live. I guarantee you nobody thinks that this cringe is you do. Would

[00:27:57] you rather be embarrassed for 30 seconds online and own a speedboat or not be embarrassed and

[00:28:05] you know, be riding your bike to work every day like no shade of people ride their bike. I love

[00:28:11] riding my bike, but you get where I'm going with this. Yeah, if you're the kind of agent that

[00:28:15] loves going out into the real world and meeting strangers, then do that because no that's something

[00:28:21] that most people just aren't doing. So most agents aren't doing that is always going to be the

[00:28:26] the biggest win. And if you don't have time to do social media or if you could just do social media

[00:28:31] or going out into the real world, probably going out in the real world, the best thing if you're

[00:28:35] meeting 10 people a day, you're going to just build up your database like crazy. Okay, but for those

[00:28:40] of us that don't have time to do that or aren't doing that or don't want to do that or we're

[00:28:43] introverted, you're going to want to build your you're you're going to want to do this on social media.

[00:28:48] And the cool part is introverts. This is where introverts can shine and they can show off

[00:28:53] their extroverted selves from an introverted sort of distribution mechanism. So I think that's

[00:29:00] that's okay. Let's let's switch gears. I want to talk about Zillow because agents have a very

[00:29:05] visceral reaction to Zillow. Most agents are I would say that I talk to are are don't think

[00:29:10] favorably about Zillow. However, they just lost a big case here in Chicago where our local MLS

[00:29:17] was basically threatening to cut their their feed actually did cut their feed. I'm talking about

[00:29:22] the listings feed to Zillow created a huge to do and then they reinstated it and they had this big

[00:29:31] lawsuit about really more about private networks, but still, you know, Ken Zillow cut Ken

[00:29:39] M. Red, which is our local MLS, can they actually cut the Zillow feed? The answer is yes, they can.

[00:29:43] And so that was the ruling and what do you think the future of Zillow is now knowing that

[00:29:51] one local MLS basically won the power to do what they want and all the others can now cite that

[00:29:59] as a as you know, as a ruling and possibly do the same. Honestly, I think it's such an interesting

[00:30:07] topic because I can tell you from from like a brokerage leadership perspective, Zillow is one of

[00:30:16] these ecosystems and I call it an ecosystem and not a tool that is bull I mean it's like

[00:30:27] it's this is like potato chips for a lot of agents because they know they're not they know

[00:30:32] that in their heart of hearts eating too many potato chips is not good for you, but also it's hard

[00:30:39] to stop eating once you've started eating them and believe it or not like there's potato chips

[00:30:46] and a lot of stuff like think about I don't know if you're if how looped in the audiences on this

[00:30:51] but you know Zillow owns a lot of an agents kind of daily operations now they have Zillow they have

[00:31:00] the largest consumer portal by I mean by a country mile they have and not just do they have consumer

[00:31:08] attention like that that they have I think arguably the most at least impactful or significant

[00:31:16] source of leads for real estate agents when you think of a single source or category. No question.

[00:31:23] Red fence in second place and they have a fairly good footprint but I don't know how they

[00:31:29] compare and volume to Zillow. Yeah I mean it's they wouldn't even be in the same you know

[00:31:35] no pun intended the same zip code right most likely so you know like it or like it or not

[00:31:42] these are they have the they have the most impactful lead source they have the most

[00:31:50] significant consumer portal they own follow up boss real estate CRM which I mean full disclosure

[00:31:59] my team uses follow up boss here but it's not necessarily because follow up boss is the best

[00:32:05] solution for our individual bespoke solution but it is a requirement for us to use if our agents are

[00:32:13] going to be a part of the various programs that Zillow has for purchasing or Zillow preferred leads

[00:32:22] so it is a it is a CRM of which there is no escape if you're going to participate in the

[00:32:28] former parts of it they have showing time which is at least in the Midwest and at least in my

[00:32:36] market in Michigan is essentially a requirement if you want to be a part of the modern economy

[00:32:44] of of showing and I know agents that will just I mean it's not that they wouldn't show a property

[00:32:51] if it wasn't on showing time but it's not a priority for them in the same way. And they're annoyed

[00:32:57] if you're not using it. Super annoyed like you're already you're starting you're starting from

[00:33:02] a disadvantage from a relationship perspective and this is just like I mean these are the big names

[00:33:08] but there's a whole bunch of small things underneath it so what is the future of Zillow given

[00:33:14] given all this I will say two things one I would say that I I believe that Zillow will always

[00:33:22] for in perpetuity it doesn't matter if we are in a grand utopia and all the world's problems

[00:33:28] are solved Zillow will still be in the headlines for people being pissed off at them whether it's

[00:33:33] downstream of a lawsuit or or an unfavorable court decision or whatever it is Zillow will always

[00:33:41] be in the headlines there is no solving that I will also say regardless of where Zillow is in those

[00:33:49] Zillow will keep growing I do not see a future where Zillow contracts or gets smaller I think there

[00:33:58] would have to be some sort of radical fundamental shift in the way that we think about like a nationwide

[00:34:06] MLS that would essentially remove Zillow as the required consumer first stop for most consumers in

[00:34:15] their journey that just will not happen there's just no I do not see a world in which that that

[00:34:21] is a reality so I as much as frankly it doesn't feel like it's the right thing for the industry I don't

[00:34:28] see a future where Zillow gets smaller they could stay the same but I think that they will continue to

[00:34:34] grow but and this is the big the big but here I think that especially when it comes to indie brokerages

[00:34:44] that do not have large corporate or franchise commitments that have to stick to I think we are about

[00:34:52] to see I think we I'm already starting to see it honestly little kind of rumbles of a rebel alliance

[00:35:00] forming of indie brokerages that are quietly planning an exit from all Zillow related

[00:35:06] obligations seeking other solutions and it is going to be a fascinating story to watch develop

[00:35:15] because there is going to be a number of narratives that emerge that say shoot I didn't realize

[00:35:25] not just the value that Zillow provided because they do provide an objective amount of value

[00:35:30] but the hidden cost of obligation that came with accepting that value I didn't really

[00:35:37] realize how much that was we're going to start to see indie brokerages cut ties from those

[00:35:42] platforms and that message is going to be super compelling what it's going to be I I think the next

[00:35:49] big thing is not going to be a Zillow shrink it's going to be a Zillow conversation the narrative that

[00:35:55] will emerge in the marketplace of successful real estate businesses that are in their post Zillow

[00:36:01] era is going to be very compelling that's interesting so in the same kind of conversation

[00:36:09] speaking of independent brokerages we now have Compass who owns I think 18% of all the REALTORS

[00:36:15] in real estate agents in the country and are is trying to build a walled a walled garden for

[00:36:23] their own listings their own private network and trying to control inventory because they can

[00:36:32] if if certain things go their way so as an independent brokerage that that's scary because I'm

[00:36:39] we're independent as well because if they have exclusive listings within their ecosystem of

[00:36:46] different brands then that might preclude our agents your agents from seeing those listings first

[00:36:53] and maybe at all and some curious what you think is going to happen and Zillow has got their own

[00:37:01] private listing network now too what you think is going to happen with the independence versus

[00:37:08] Compass Indies yeah I frankly again I think it is a fascinating conversation I actually I think

[00:37:20] there is a scary amount of equivalence between the conversation with Zillow and the conversation

[00:37:26] with Compass and it's actually it's not it's not a surprise they both want the same thing and

[00:37:34] I mean roughly speaking I would not be surprised honestly if there is one if there are specific

[00:37:46] um narratives from Indie brokerages that emerge as narrative leaders and I don't just mean like

[00:37:55] figuratively I mean literally these are people who can tell really good stories and they say like

[00:38:01] listen this is why we are an Indie brokerage this is what we're willing to sacrifice in order to

[00:38:08] provide the specific level of service and business direction that we want not just to the buyers and

[00:38:16] sellers in fact not yes to buyers and sellers in our community there's a brokerage my primary concern

[00:38:23] is servicing my agents this is this is what I think agents deserve and this is why I think working

[00:38:30] for a mega corporation that owns one out of every six real estate agents in our market this is why

[00:38:35] I think that's bad and what I think that we can do better as a as a part of that I think we're

[00:38:40] going to see an incredible narrative uh uh a kind of ecosystem emerge where really great storytellers

[00:38:49] are telling why the Indie model is better than the mega model and what is going to happen on the

[00:38:57] backside of that it's really hard to say because I guarantee you Compass is not going to stop

[00:39:03] gobbling up Indie brokerages they this is a part of their strategies they're going to keep buying to

[00:39:08] expand Compass doesn't open I know most people don't realize this but Compass doesn't open

[00:39:14] new brokerages any longer they acquire existing brokerages and change the logo and this is and

[00:39:23] there's nothing wrong with that that's that is a legitimate uh kind of business expansion strategy

[00:39:28] but we are going to see again this continued growth of the mega model we're going to see consumers

[00:39:35] and agents begin to ask questions much louder and clearer about whether or not that's the right thing

[00:39:43] for for consumers and for our industry at large and in the same way that we I guarantee you

[00:39:51] that we will continue to see Zillow's name in the headlines we will continue to see Compass in

[00:39:56] the headlines whether or not it doesn't matter again if we are in some sort of utopia and we're all

[00:40:01] walking around in slippers with all of our problems solved Compass this name is still going to be in

[00:40:05] the headlines because that is a part of their their operating system right now so I mean at the end

[00:40:11] of all of this we are going this is this is this is a story on multiple levels of big versus small

[00:40:19] conglomerate versus Indie what's better for our industry what's better for our agents and ultimately

[00:40:25] what's better for our consumers yeah I think one thing that I've been thinking about which I

[00:40:31] I think seems logical who knows what if this prediction will come true but it seems like it is

[00:40:37] likely to which is what what do we know when when a firm like Compass goes out and acquires uh

[00:40:45] other brokerages they're or or teams that they're buying from other brokerages you know they're

[00:40:51] they're have to make it in some sort of incentive for it to make sense and so usually that means

[00:40:56] they're paying either the teams directly or they're paying the brokerage uh an exorbitant sum to

[00:41:01] to you know obviously get them under under their umbrella and what do we know that happens every

[00:41:06] time a company that of that size buys other companies and pays a premium for those bands is

[00:41:13] all of a sudden costs have to come down at some point especially there's you know shareholders

[00:41:18] right so the costs have to come down they have to meet their shareholder uh you know expectations

[00:41:24] and what I think is going to happen and I I'm sort of shocked I don't hear more talk about it is

[00:41:29] I think by your commissions especially once Compass can literally say we have 50% of the listings

[00:41:35] in house so we now can wall it off from everyone else including Zillow and including the Indies

[00:41:41] and we just own the market now what are we things going to happen to these broker uh these agent

[00:41:46] commissions like they're going to have to come down and I mean I just can't think the splits that

[00:41:52] they're paying right now I know people that are at Compass making 95% that are big teams and I'm like oh

[00:41:59] Compass doesn't make money off you and they're like oh no they don't and yet it's like well how long

[00:42:05] can that's could survive so I think you're right I think if that happens and all the sudden

[00:42:11] Reffkin starts cutting agents commissions their splits then I think a flight to Indie is is

[00:42:16] inevitable and what a great thing for for Indie brokerages so I don't know if that's going to have

[00:42:21] I just think that seems logical so we'll see well here's here's something I don't expect to happen

[00:42:27] and man if it does there will be a real uh I mean all bets will be off is I don't think that we

[00:42:37] will be in a scenario anytime soon where if Compass puts together their wall garden and these

[00:42:45] listings are not going to Zillow I do not think that there is a near future where uh one where those

[00:42:54] listings become completely invisible to anybody else like it doesn't make sense to me that consumers

[00:43:03] even if it means that they have to go to Compass.com instead of Zillow.com to see it consumers are

[00:43:10] still going to be able to get to see uh the inventory I guess they're there to me there could be a

[00:43:16] dystopian future where that information becomes completely privileged but that just seems unlikely to

[00:43:22] me if consumers can see it I also don't see a world where a Compass agent would not accept a

[00:43:32] showing from a non Compass uh river a non Compass represented buyer it doesn't make it it doesn't

[00:43:39] make sense to me that that would be the end game I mean I can understand it mathematically that you

[00:43:46] would say no these are our listings and only Compass agents are going to show them and only

[00:43:51] Compass agents are going to list them and we're going to capture every single piece of value

[00:43:56] in the ecosystem and honestly the next logical step would be oh by the way you can only use a

[00:44:03] Compass lender and oh by the way you can only use a Compass home inspector and oh by the way oh by

[00:44:10] the way oh by the way like you just keep on building the walls of the garden higher uh and every single

[00:44:17] piece I don't see that as something that consumers would tolerate and I think also it just seems

[00:44:24] very unlikely to me that even if it's Compass exclusive inventory that a non Compass agent

[00:44:30] represented buyer couldn't get access to that property and so to that end I don't think the

[00:44:39] indies are going to see it first I think the Compass agents are going to see it first that was

[00:44:44] that's their their plan is private listing within the wall garden just for our agents the public

[00:44:49] isn't going to see it only and so we're going to get a we're going to get the first hack at it

[00:44:54] and then we're going to show it to everyone essentially I mean I think that that makes sense but

[00:45:01] that only to me makes sense in a vacuum like there will be to me that will last for a little while

[00:45:09] until consumers I'll tell you what the only way that that sustains is if there is a meaningful

[00:45:16] shift in the ability for new housing stock to be constructed such that the market doesn't dry up

[00:45:25] otherwise if the market especially for new housing stock does not change and Compass then becomes

[00:45:33] accredited reason why housing is more difficult for most people or for non-compess users to acquire

[00:45:41] there will be people with torches in the streets I'm just I'm confident of that but you know no

[00:45:47] crystal ball here so I'm excited to see what happens and then we're also walking into and I trust

[00:45:53] you know sort of scenarios that hopefully the government is is paying enough attention to because

[00:46:00] they need to with with the Compass acquisitions and also with Zillow does as well so because I think

[00:46:06] this is a great place for us to to jump off and remind our listeners that not only are you on

[00:46:14] this show and working at the mitten group and doing really cool stuff with their brand development and

[00:46:20] agent the business development but that you speak at different events and you are going to be heading

[00:46:26] to california or at least virtually speaking to the agents at the at the state level for so tell

[00:46:34] us about that yeah I will be there live it in the flesh if you are a california

[00:46:40] REALTOR or if you are not a california REALTOR and you want to for some reason come to california

[00:46:46] it's their their event it is free so come to to california REALTOR and I assume anyone who wants to

[00:46:53] attend but yeah I'll be speaking at the C.A.R. reimagined conference in Long Beach California that is

[00:47:01] I should have had this up before we started talking that is I'll be speaking on

[00:47:07] Tuesday October 6th and Wednesday October 7th so if you are a california association of

[00:47:14] REALTOR's member and you'll be in town for in Long Beach for reimagined I would love to connect

[00:47:20] find me in the program I'll be a featured speaker there on both days and I'll be hanging around

[00:47:25] before and after I speak so I would love to connect with folks if you want to tell me how

[00:47:30] wrong I am about the stuff DJ and I talk about or if you just want to talk about real estate in general

[00:47:36] that would be great I'd love to connect to you I've got a handful of things already lined up for

[00:47:41] 2027 that I can't really talk about just yet but I'll be in places like New York and Texas and

[00:47:48] Florida and California and New Jersey so if you are out and about at events I'd love to see you

[00:47:56] and you know I'm just gonna give a little plug here if you are in the state of Michigan and you

[00:48:01] want to talk about the next step for your real estate business you should check out the mittengroup.com

[00:48:07] we're based in beautiful Traverse City but we are fluent in every shoreline so come on come on over

[00:48:13] let's have a conversation about what your real estate business does and how we can support it

[00:48:18] and what it means to be successful in the next chapter of your career because I'm invested in

[00:48:23] your success. Next month I want to get into a topic I know you're passionate about which is the

[00:48:29] relevance a future relevance of the local state and national associations how important are they

[00:48:37] we're starting to see agents become non-members at least from the national level and sometimes the

[00:48:42] local level as well state level I'm not quite as tuned in on how I guess you probably disconnect

[00:48:48] from all of it but there are people doing that they're buying MLS access directly a lot of

[00:48:53] MLSes are now allowing that what they did here in Chicago which is interesting is yes you it's

[00:48:58] kind of a false choice in Chicago where you say you don't have to be a member except if you go to

[00:49:03] the our local MLS to buy it directly it's way more expensive so it becomes this like false choice of

[00:49:09] well you can technically don't have to be a member of the association except why would you pay

[00:49:13] more for something that you might as well just join the association you get everything else. So

[00:49:18] it's going to be interesting I think the associations are terrified I know actually I know they are

[00:49:22] because I work with the at the local level and at the national level and I know what the fear is

[00:49:28] so I'm curious to get your thoughts in the future we will talk about that in many other

[00:49:32] topics and interesting unpopular real estate opinions I want everyone to follow Chris Linsell

[00:49:37] at his Instagram account which is ask underscore Chris underscore Linsell will have a link to that

[00:49:42] in the show notes along with his website and you can subscribe to his newsletter and what's

[00:49:48] the best way they should subscribe to your newsletter you can visit me at christensell.com there's a

[00:49:52] little button on there you can also reach out on LinkedIn just if when you connect with me on LinkedIn

[00:50:00] you get a little message that says hey thanks for connecting with me this is where I write this is

[00:50:04] when I write would you like to get a test issue right in your mailbox and I'm trying some new ways

[00:50:10] to acquire email subscriptions that are meaningful and not just span subscriptions so I'm not saying

[00:50:17] I don't want everyone but I don't really want everyone I only want those who are interested in

[00:50:22] actually reading here so you're going to be on the list come engage with me don't just get it

[00:50:26] delete it read it right back tell me I'm wrong this is we're all about building a community over here

[00:50:33] and I am also going to make a quick plug which I've never done for myself about my own Instagram

[00:50:38] channel and I'll tell you why it's not because I necessarily want you to follow me and and

[00:50:44] love the content I'm creating I actually want your opinion so I've started creating content specifically

[00:50:49] around sort of do this don't do that stuff for REALTORS and it's really for me in my local market

[00:50:56] here in Chicago it's not about our local market but it's for me to sort of see if I can get REALTORS

[00:51:01] hooked on my content so that over time maybe they check out our brokerage without me saying come check

[00:51:05] under brokerage so it's just literally 30 second reels I try to do one to a day but I really am

[00:51:13] curious as an agent wherever you are in the country is this content helpful to you there's not a lot

[00:51:18] of people in the space making this kind of content and so whether you're in Chicago or not doesn't

[00:51:22] really matter but I'd love for you to check it out I will have a link to that in the show notes it's

[00:51:26] my my Instagram handle is Delphan that's my first name is d-e-l-f-i-n not ph d-e-l-f-i-n dot Paris

[00:51:33] so check that out if you if you can and I'd love for you to give me your thoughts on whether this

[00:51:38] content actually is useful for you in your business so anyway with that being said we will see

[00:51:43] everybody on the next episode thank you Chris on behalf of the audience on behalf of Chris and

[00:51:47] myself we thank the audience we appreciate you tell a friend about our podcasts it's the best way

[00:51:52] uh we don't spend money on advertising but we love it when you tell other agents about the show so

[00:51:57] keeping it real is for all agents please let them know and we will see everybody on the next episode

[00:52:03] thanks Chris thank you talk to you soon

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